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The Yankees Chick Is ALWAYS a Safe bet!
Friday, September 07, 2007
A while back I posted a delightful (but by no means instructional; don't blame me for your gambling debts now you degenerates) gambling-related article detailing the odds Vegas-type folks had determined for 2007 feats for everything from home run king to World Series champ. Of course, these odds were set before the season started and therefore before the entire Yankees roster started dropping like flies (see Plague, Pavano) and the inception of inexplicable phenomena like Balco B remaining uninjured (sorta) or the White Sox determining that beating even the Devil Rays was just not worth the effort, so as you can imagine the professors of Betting-ville have had to adjust their lines a tad. Some of the pre-season predictions seem downright laughable at this point (10-1 on the ChiSox?!), but a few seem to have panned out as expected... which category do your bets fall under?

First, let's see how the World Series picks have changed since March:

TeamOdds - MarchOdds - September
NYY7-24-1
DET5-15-1
BoSox15-13-1
NYM9-16-1
CHI9-14-1
LAA10-19-2
ChiSox10-17500-1

I'm sure there are several things I could choose to remark upon here, but with that glaring 7500-1 shot at the bottom of the list, I cannot stop laughing long enough to concentrate on anything else.

The next one I looked at back in March was the Total Wins line. I wasn't too intrigued by this line at first, but now that we can compare the way these dudes have actually played to the expectations of those odds-making experts, there are a few interesting points:

TeamProjected Wins - MarchActual Wins - 9/6
NYY96.578
BoSox9185
MYM8978
LAA88.582
PHL88.573
LAD8874
ChiSox87.559
DET87.575

I believe these numbers are very telling, because I've been saying all along that the Yankees are way too good to have lost so many games and that the Red Sox are playing better than they really are. Obviously the Yankees probs won't be meeting their goal (and neither will White Sox, for that matter), but Angels and BoSox bettors should be happy that their teams are almost to their mark with several weeks to go! I do find it interesting that the oddsmen estimated that Philly and the Mets would end up with virtually the same record yet gave the Mets much better odds at actually winning the series. Perhaps they could sense potential Philly post-season failure a mile away.

Home-Run King is another fave for the gambler in all of us. Here is how sportsbook.com had the odds for most homers laid out back in March:

PlayerOdds - MarchActual - 9/6
Ryan Howard4-137
Albert Pujols5-130
David Ortiz8-127
A-Rod8-148
Alfonso Soriano15-122
Jim Thome20-123
Manny Ramirez20-120
Andruw Jones40-124
Vladimir Guerrero50-122
Barry Bonds100-128

I find it pretty surprising that A-Rod's odds were only 8-1 after so many years of consistently high homer totals while Ryan Howard's odds were set at 4-1 after just one year. Balco B, on the other hand, should be either impressed with himself that he remained in (relative) contention or insulted that no one thought his odds should be any higher. I will say that the fact that I had to go to page 2 of MLB's top 50 home-run hitters just to get to Manny made me giggle with glee.

We'll have to take another look at these once all is said and done, of course, but I do hope that at least some of you folks will be making some cash come October. The Yankees Chick, unfortunately, will continue to be broke as a joke (sidenote: if anyone wants to, say, set up a collection for me [begging for change with paper cup on a street corner perhaps?] such that I can afford to actually live in this godforsaken city without resorting to eating nothing but ramen noodles and the occasional bagel splurge, I would certainly not object).

Labels: , ,

posted by Yankees Chick @ Friday, September 07, 2007  
2 Comments:
  • At 9:19 AM, Blogger Yankees Fan in Boston said…

    Can't you become a street-performer? Play some guitar? Bang some drums? Saxophone in the subway?

    Those folks usually have some decent amounts of money in their instrument cases!

    Hey its just an idea..

     
  • At 1:24 AM, Blogger jobu said…

    Did they even set odds for Prince Fielder? How about Ryan Braun (who wasn't even called up until the end of May)?

     
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